Repeating the Same Mistake

(Victor Ivan)

The atmospheric heat is rising .So is the political heat of the country. Along with that, I too am burdened with numerous questions posed to me over the phone querying about my views on the current political situation of the country. Of the queries made, the majority is in respect of the JVP and the President Ranil. The criticisms published by me about the JVP must have influenced the high level of questions being raised about the JVP. Similarly, the comment I made in public in the early days when Ranil became the President, that he was the "smart" leader among the other political leaders, who could be chosen  and entrusted with the responsibility of resolving the balance of payment crisis , might have been the reason for  receiving the increased number  of inquiries about Ranil. I gave Ranil such a guarantee at that time not because I was a supporter of Ranil or for seeking undue advantages  from him; but in my opinion he was the best choice among the political leaders to be selected to overcome the crisis that was associated with the bankruptcy of the economy of Sri Lanka. By the term ‘best’, I implied the qualities such as knowledge, experience and the ability to take decisions required to be possessed by a leader. Ranil was appointed the President of Sri Lanka by Parliament at a crucial moment when the economy of Sri Lanka and the system of institutions of the state had completely collapsed and the country was becoming a cruel victim of violence and anarchy to some extent. At that time, not only the Marxist parties like the JVP and Peratugami party, but also the right-wing opposition party was also engaged in an effort to chase out the new president Ranil, the way president Gotabaya was ousted and seize the post of presidency.

This approach of the Opposition led to exacerbate the anarchic situation in the country and weaken the popularity of the Opposition and strengthen the JVP.The UNP, the official opposition party during the 1971 insurrection, adopted a policy of   supporting   the SLFP-LSSP-CP coalition government that was in power from the beginning to the end of the insurrection. The UNP used the insurrection for its political gains only after defeating the rebels. It reflects that the leaders of the opposition party (UNP) at that time had a considerable understanding of the role of the opposition in a democratic system of governance in a crisis situation. At the second JVP insurrection of 1987-89, at the beginning of the insurrection, Sirima Bandaranaike, the leader of the SLFP followed a policy of tolerating the anti-India violent approach of the JVP. Her wrong approach weakened the SLFP and strengthened the insurgency. This factor had a decisive influence on her defeat in the 1988 presidential election. It is a major responsibility of the main opposition party in a democratic political system to cooperate with the ruling party regardless of the differences it has with the ruling party to protect the state when its survival is challenged. In instances where the opposition party ignores its responsibility and acts greedily for power, not only the opposition party but also the people of the country may be compelled to pay a heavy price for it. The lack of adequate political knowledge or the poverty of thinking of most of the political leaders and the political parties in Sri Lanka can be considered as an important factor that has led to aggravate the country's problems.
Ranil becoming the President

The country was in a state of turmoil when Ranil was elected president by the Parliament. Not only the economic performance of the country but also the functioning of the state was in a state of collapse to a great extent; and the country was being pushed into violence and anarchy. The struggle, (Aragalaya) which was flowing in a peaceful form until then, suddenly assumed a violent form, to some extent, when a group of government supporters who came to temple trees from different areas, stormed the Galle face and assaulted the protesters, on their way back after meeting Mahinda Rajapaksa who was expected to resign from the post of Prime Minister. In response to this attack the supporters of Pohottuwa party who were going back to their villages by buses after seeing Mahinda, the Prime Minister, were beaten horribly on the way and on that night  and the next day, the houses and properties belonging to about 70 political leaders attached to the government, were set on fire. According to police reports, 10 people, including a Member of Parliament, were killed in the clashes. The private house of Ranil was also burnt and destroyed 05 days before he assumed the post of acting President.

​The State of Sri Lanka was in such a frail condition that it could have been destroyed even with a slight push when Ranil was sworn in as the President. The mentality of the police and security forces was also in a defeated state that had lost self-confidence. The day after Ranil was sworn in as President, the protesters were evicted forcefully from the Galle face, which they had used as   their main base camp and the President's House, the President's Secretariat, and the Temple Trees, which were occupied by the protesters, were also freed from their grip. The street protests were also reduced by adopting a strict policy regarding labor and student demonstrations. The unique and incomparable role played by the President to restore the economic activities of the country, which had completely collapsed due to bankruptcy, has been discussed to a great extent and it can be said that the society has gained a considerable understanding of it. Yet, the role played by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to rescue the State of Sri Lanka, which was in a dire state of impotence and anarchy, has still not been discussed adequately. To overcome the collapse and the anarchy of the State, he didn’t allow assassinations, abductions and disappearances to occur. He did not follow a policy of arresting and detaining people in large numbers. What he did was to follow a policy that made use of   minimum power strictly. President Ranil Wickremesinghe cannot be considered as an all-powerful leader. When he became president, his party had only his representation in the parliament. Therefore, he had to depend entirely on the majority voting power of the Pohottuwa party. Even though the policies he implemented were contrary to those of the Pohottuwa party, the latter did not obstruct him in implementing them. It should not be forgotten that if they had done so, certainly, the country would have fallen back into a great precipice. 

If Sri Lanka had a leader who is younger, more mature, better dressed, closer to the people and more efficient than Ranil, needless to say that Sri Lanka should have chosen that leader and not Ranil. But there were no other leaders better than Ranil to choose from. If there were future leaders of this caliber, most of them, if not all, were killed in the second JVP insurrection or in the LTTE insurgency, either by the insurgents or at the hands of the security forces who suppressed those insurgencies. There is hardly any other country in the world where political leaders have been killed in rebellions as much as in Sri Lanka. Therefore, Sri Lanka has a crisis of not having leaders of high caliber. Under this special background Ranil was the best leader to choose to rescue Sri Lanka from the crisis it faced. He has fulfilled the responsibility assigned to him well. Despite there could be some mistakes and shortcomings, it must be said that his performances remain at a very high and optimum level.
Reform proposals

After Sri Lanka went bankrupt I compiled a brief reform proposal to bring about a deep change in the existing system, and submitted it to President Gotabhaya Rajapaksa. I did not support Gotabhaya in the presidential election. The opinion I expressed in public was that it was not appropriate to elect someone with indictments to the high office of the President. I had a special prediction that Sri Lanka was rapidly moving towards a collapse of the socio-economic-political system which will lead to bankruptcy and anarchy. I had written two books and many articles about it, and a number of speeches or public speeches I had made about it had been published on social media. In the situation where my prediction had come true, a reform proposal that could be used to overcome the great collapse of Sri Lanka was handed over to the head of state with the view to opening the door for a reform program that will bring about a profound change in the system. The response of the President to my reform proposal was very good. After the appointment of Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister, the President had given a copy of the document containing my proposals to the Prime Minister and as a result, there was a long discussion between the Prime Minister and me.

The reform program was prepared in such a way that the United Nations Organization also could be involved in it as an observer. One of its important objectives was to solve the national problem based on race, caste and religion, and to remove the corruption and inefficiency that could be considered as a rampant cancer that has overwhelmed the State. Recreating the state and the political system with active participation of the public and adopting a new constitution was another important objective. Accordingly, the reforms are carried out in two main stages. The first stage of the reform program is implemented under the old parliament and the second stage is under the new parliament elected after an election. The nature of the reforms to take place in those two stages, the manner in which they should take place and the time frames will be included in an interim Constitution. The Interim Constitution creates a structural/ Constitutional obligation to implement the entire reform program as stated in it. After realizing that President Ranil Wickremesinghe had a great desire to implement this reform program on common consensus, to bring about a profound change in the entire system, a group of us made a great effort to get the opposition and other parties to agree on the proposed reform program. 

We met many party leaders and discussed our reform proposals and the need for such a reform program. Most of them had studied the proposal that we had sent them in advance and they evinced a great interest in the reform proposals. The leaders of the minority parties seemed to be more interested in the reform program. But for that, they felt it was necessary to get the agreement of the main opposition party with which they were allied. But their attempt to persuade the main opposition party was not successful. In the final analysis, the political parties failed to utilize the reform space that had opened up to bring about a better and profound change in the existing ugly system If Sri Lanka had succeeded in making proper use of that space, the achievements so far would have been stronger and optimum, and we as a country would have been in a much more developed stage.

Ranil's role

The role played by President Ranil Wickremesinghe in rescuing the country from its unfortunate plight in a short period of 20 months, can be said to be very unique and unparalleled. There could be drawbacks and shortcomings in the process. However, notwithstanding such limitations, the results achieved remain at an appreciable level. Thus, despite the role he has played for the people of Sri Lanka during this crisis being very unique, difficult and unequal, the people of Sri Lanka and its political society have not shown enough gratitude for the role played by him. Why? Is it because ingratitude has become a common national trait of Sri Lankans? It can be said that Vijaya, who is considered as the hero who had given the name to the Sinhalese race, was ungrateful to Kuveni. Thereafter Kappetipola, the greatest hero of Sinhala people born in the last phase of the ancient Sinhalese State, did not pray to be reborn in Sri Lanka before he was beheaded by the colonial rulers. He prayed to be born in Jambudvipa (India). Did he do so because he had some doubts about the people of Sri Lanka? After that Anagarika Dharmapala, the main thinker of the Sinhala Buddhists people during the last phase of the British rule too, prayed not to be born in Sri Lanka, but to be born in India. We know that Anagarika Dharmapala did so because he had doubts about the people of Sri Lanka.

I had observed that there is a large social segment in the country that does not appear in public for President Ranil Wickremesinghe but appears secretly on his behalf. I was puzzled as to why they appear for Ranil secretly without doing it in public. It was a difficult problem for me to solve. Malith Jayathilaka, a theoretician involved in the Good Governance change in 2015, offered me a wonderful interpretation of this question. It is as follows: The middle class of Sri Lanka did not allow the right-wing Ranil to come to power in a number of major elections held consecutively, and put the leaders like Chandirika, Mahinda, Maithripala and Gotabaya who were leaned towards left, in power. But thanks to the crisis facing the country, they have now realized that none of them are real heroes and the real hero is Ranil whom they did not support earlier. Yet they find it difficult to stand for Ranil in public, which is a matter of conscience, because they have a history in which they had maintained an anti-Ranil stance.
In the face of a second crisis

Now, Sri Lanka is at a critical political crossroad or on the verge of a second terrible crisis. Although Sri Lanka has managed to pass a significant distance from the deep abyss it had fallen into, it has not yet been able to pass the risk zone completely. The successful progress Sri Lanka has made so far, is mainly due to the special talent and maturity possessed by the leader who has guided the program in managing the subject. The people on the journey are now supposed to get an opportunity to change the leader who guides them, if they want to do so, before passing the danger zone. Although there was a majority support in the Parliament for the path chosen by the President to overcome the crisis, there was no common agreement reached between the political parties for that. The current situation   is controversial. The strongest opposition to the current program is launched by the JVP. Sunil Handunetti, one of the first rank leaders of the JVP has already cautioned that the state business enterprises such as Sri Lankan Airlines, Telecom and Litro Gas should not be sold and foreign buyers should not venture to buy them. Although the views of SJB on this are not as extreme as those of the JVP, the former has no much consensus on the IMF program implemented by Ranil. The country is returning to a state of great chaos. So much so the country is likely to return to a state of chaos again. What could be the end of this chaos?

The political parties had a responsibility to create a general policy agreement that would ensure that the country does not become bankrupt again regardless of which party comes to power in an election. But they did not fulfill that duty. Therefore, Sri Lanka is now moving towards an explosive political crossroads.in such an eventuality there is a real danger of Sri Lanka falling into a state of bankruptcy again. The ultimate responsibility of preventing Sri Lanka from falling back into a terrible abyss of bankruptcy for the second time lies with the people. Do the people of Sri Lanka possess an advanced political literacy that even the political parties do not possess? Ranil's program would not have been able to gain the success it had achieved so far, if the people of Sri Lanka had obstructed its implementation on the needs of the political parties which were against it or on the policies of the   parties they themselves belonged to. So much so,   some people, despite having had their political affiliations with the SJB or the JVP, have opted to support Ranil’s program indirectly, ignoring the objections of those parties. However, it is not clear the policy they are likely to follow when it comes to electing the next leader. Mao Zedong said, “a fall into a pit, a gain in your wit ". A man who falls into the same pit during the day, where he had fallen in the night can be considered as an extraordinary fool. Sri Lanka is now moving into a terrible abyss again. If it falls into a state of bankruptcy again, the compensation to be paid will be huge. The only way to prevent the country from falling into such a terrible situation is through a concerted and organized effort by the informed people to prevent it from falling into such an unfortunate eventuality again. To achieve that purpose, the country needs a third campaign or force at this moment.