Is it impossible to Gota ..?

How to get the balance 8%..! 

Has a lightening thumped the eyes of the UNP..?

(Upul Joshap Fernando)

“ Why did Basil come to the discussions of SLFP- SLPP all of a sudden..?

It was a question no one notices. Those who are interested with finding fault of the nomination of the candidate of UNP did not pay attention on this question. There is a big story behind Basil’s attending the discussions of SLFP and Podujana Peramuna. This story should commence with the speech made by Udaya Gammanpila at a Press Conference in February 2019. “We have to form an Alliance to win the Presidential Election.

The reason is we could obtain only 40.5% at the Provincial Council Election. Even if we add the number of votes of two hundred thousand that we obtained from the electorates where our nominations were rejected, it will come to 42 %. At the last election 80% had used the voting. It is the same percentage that is used in a Presidential Election. Hence we cannot expect to attract those who did not vote at the Provincial Council Election. We need further 8% to fulfill the requirement of 50%. This was Gammanpila’s story. He told this story keeping two things in his mind. First was to nominate Gota as the Presidential candidate since he cannot win. Second was to get Mahinda and Maithree together.

Basil agreed to give the nomination to Gota over the influence of Gammanpila, Wimal Weerawansa and Aluthgamage who are pro Gota and to get the 8% that was referred by Gammanpila if Gota has a vote base. Basil knows that not only the image of Mahinda but the Podujana Peramuna too was destroyed by the October 26 conspiracy where Mahinda had to go home from the Premiership. This damage is over 2%. Basil would have thought that the damage caused by the October 26 conspiracy was reduced by the Easter Sunday attacks as a result of which Rajapakshas and Podujana Peramuna had a jump. He would have thought that the ideal candidate will be Gota in a situation where the country expects a person who could establish the security and get the 8% referred by Gammanpila after demolishing the October 26 damage.

Basil would have been unable to think of some other candidate due the influence of Wimal and Gammanpila. Ultimately Gotabaya became the candidate after the agreement of Basil with the consent of Rajapaksha family including Mahinda. Wimal and Gammanpila had pointed out an uprising in the country when Gota is nominated. They would have boasted that this is an uprising experienced when the war came to an end which was celebrated by the every one lighting crackers and eating Milk rice. Basil, Mahinda and the Rajapaksha family also would have thought the same way.

Mahinda had instructed his supporters to light crackers on date of Gota’s nomination to get the same experience. All the media telecasted the Convention where Gota was nominated in the same manner media telecasted the conclusion of the war in 2009. But the expected uprising was not there. Eventhough Gota visited Temples after his nomination, only members of Podujana Peramuna got rallied around him. But the expected crowd was not there. Fonseka got more attraction in 2009 when he was nominated when compared to Gota. Basil would have felt it. According to Basil’s calculations, Gota could secure the 42% gained in the Provincial Council Election in 2018. But another 8% is remaining. In 2018 Provincial Council Election Podujana Peramuna could obtain 50 lacks of votes. Even the number of votes obtained from electorates where Podujana Peramuna nominations were rejected, take in to account ,it will be 52 lacks. But to win the Presidential Election votes of 65 to 70 lacks should be obtained. Another 15 to 20 lacks is required. It should be gained from minority parties. Since Gota was nominated it will not be possible. Basil thought when Gota is nominated all the Sinhala votes could be gained as Wimla and Gammanpila predicted.

It did not occur. Now Basil is begging for votes. He attended the Podujana Peramuna and SLFP discussions not with the idea of the 14 lacks votes, obtained by Maithree in 2018 which is in his pocket. He knows that Maithree got 14 lacks votes in 2018 because of 3 reasons. The first is the votes obtained by candidates of SLFP were among this. Second is the votes of anti Mahinda but pro Bandaranayake were among this. Third was the votes of second class people who described Mahinda and Ranil both as rogues which he personally got. There were floating votes of UNP. Whatever it is, the votes obtained by the candidates in Provincial Council Election of 2018 is not used the same way in a Presidential Election. Basil would have though with these calculation that Maithree got only 2 lacks of votes. In this Presidential Election even 2 lacks is important. Hence it is not a wonder Basil’s attending SLFP- SLPP discussions and highlighting those as successful.

“But how to win just by gaining 2 lacks on top of 52 lacks..?

The big secret behind Basil’s attending discussions of Podujana Peramuna and SLFP is there. Basil’s intention is to get the UNP divided by Maithree. Basil knows that getting the required 15 to 20 lacks votes is possible if the UNP is divided. Hence Basil is not bothered even to promise the Premiership to Maithree. Maithree’s intention is to come to the Parliament from the national list of SLFP soon after the Presidential Election. He had to do a big role to Mahinda to get the Prime Minister’s position from him. The biggest thing he can do now is to split the UNP. In the other hand if the UNP wins the Presidential Election for him to become the Prime Minister, someone who is anti Ranil should win after ousting Ranil from the party leadership. Because whoever wins from the Presidential Election, Ranil will remain in the position of Premiership until the President gets the power to dissolve the Parliament.

If Ranil or an pro Ranil wins the Election , Maithree’s dream of becoming the Prime Minister will not materialize. Hence his intention is to get an anti Ranil to get the candidature and oust Ranil from the party leadership. From Maithree’s intention of getting the Premiership, it is Pohottuwa which get the benefit. That is why Basil is commenting that the discussions between the SLFP and Podujana Peramuna is fruitful. Basil’s intention would be to inactivate the minority parties after getting the UNP cracked for Gota to gain the required 65-70 lacks votes. Maithree would have tried to appoint Sajith to the Premiership after ousting Ranil from that position knowing that the UNP will get definitely divided. Basil also wants the same. President’s Media Spokesman Weerakumara Dissanayake had stated in a Press Conference that no one can say that the President breached the Constitution when Ranil is ousted and Sajith is appointed to Premiership when get the signature of the majority of UNP. The true story is that it is only UNP which can get this 65-70 lacks votes. For that the votes of minority parties are very important.

UNP should be united to secure the vote base as well as to get the support of the minority parties. If not so it has to show that the party is united. JR introduced the President ship and decided to appoint the President through an Election knowing very well that the votes of the minority parties are of utmost important for a Presidential candidate to obtain 50%. JR thought that it is only UNP that can win the votes of minority parties. JR was correct. Premadasa got 50% at 1988 Election from the votes of Estates through Thondaman. Votes of North through Wardaraja Perumal. Votes of East Muslims through Ashrof. Chandrika got 50% in 1994 from the votes of Estates through Thondaman. East votes through Ashrof. Tamil votes of North. She won in 1999 from the votes of Estates through Thondaman. East votes through Ashrof. Tamil votes of North and votes of JVP. Mahinda won in 2005 since Prabakaran launched an Election boycott and preventing minority parties from voting for UNP. At that time the votes of East was divided to two. Feril, Athawulla and Rishard got votes from East to Mahinda. Mahinda won in 2010 since a large number of Sinhala people voted for Mahinda irrespective of party politics since he could end the war and Rishard got a large number of votes from East. Maithree won in 2015 since East Rishard - Hakeem , Digambram from Estates Tamil Alliance of North voted for him on the request of UNP.

But Mahinda too got some Muslim votes. He could get some votes from Estates and North. It is doubtful that Gota could get at least fifty percent of votes that Mahinda gained from these areas. Because the Muslims who were with Mahinda had left him with the behavior of Udaya Gammanpila and Wimal in the aftermath of the Easter Sunday attack. Eventhough Muslim leaders decided to support Gotabaya , it is not sure whether Muslims will vote for Gota. He can definite get the 50% if the UNP is divided and inactivated the Muslim votes as in 2005. Specially if the North is inactivated.

That is why Rajapakshas see Maithree as handsome now whom they sow as ugly. Some matured people who watch the Elephant fight question “Has a lightening thumped the eyes of the UNP “