Can AKD come out of Ranils shadow to rule Sri Lanka..?

Ranil Wickramasinghe, a rigorous critic of Hambanthota Port, became prime minister in 2015 and, to the surprise of countries such as the USA and some Western states, decided to lease the port to China. Ranil was a well-known pro-American leader.

Despite building the harbour with Chinese loan money, the pro-China Rajapakse family never decided to lease the harbour to China. But Ranil took that decision. That marked the beginning of the downfall of Ranil’s ‘good governance’ government. A lease agreement was inked in July 2017; by 2018, Ranil and the government were on all fours with the bond scam commission report and the local government election results. Maithree removed Ranil from the premiership in 2018. Ranil, who leased the harbour, was made to crawl by the circumstances of the geopolitics of the time.

Ranil, after the lease of the harbour, called for bids to build an oil refinery, for which Chinese Cynopack was a bidder. Knowing America and India were angered over the lease of the harbour to China, Ranil rejected Cynopack, and the refinery bid was offered to a company linked to an Indian Tamil Nadu businessman with links to an Oman-based Singaporean company. Ranil’s government claimed this Oman investment was Sri Lanka’s largest investment. However, this company later gave up the project, but China persisted in their interest in investing in this project.

In 2019, Gota promised to cancel the port lease to China as part of his campaign to become president. However, during his first overseas visit to India as President, a journalist asked him about this promise, but he evaded the question.

During Gota’s tenure, despite receiving Chinese investment offers for a refinery, he hesitated to proceed, fearing it might strain relations with India and the United States

After Gota fled in 2022, Ranil became president, and China reintroduced this proposal. However, since the country was bankrupt at the time, Ranil did not support the offer. On November 28, 2023, Ranil presented a cabinet paper for a proposed US$4.5 billion refinery project by Chinese company Cynopack. This followed his visit to China in October 2023, during which he had given his consent to the project. The agreement was set to be finalized after receiving Cabinet approval, but neither Ranil nor China appeared particularly enthusiastic due to the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Ranil likely hesitated, fearing backlash from India and the United States, while China might have been reluctant to proceed, given the uncertainty surrounding Ranil’s re-election prospects.

After being elected President during his visit to China in 2024, Anura agreed to sign the oil refinery project, which Ranil’s cabinet had already sanctioned. Anura’s government now claims this as a major victory achieved through his visit to China. However, none acknowledged that this Chinese investment was brought after signing the lease of the harbour in 2017. In other words, this oil refinery is Ranil—China’s creation.

‘ Why does the NPP government implement Ranil’s government’s proposals…?

When a new government takes office, cancelling a bilateral agreement between nations is generally deemed unethical. Therefore, Anura’s government could not refuse the signing of this project proposal. Regardless of whether Ranil, Sajith, or Anura won the presidential election, China was expecting this agreement to be finalized.

Whilst Anura was signing this agreement, the government instilled a balancing move to balance India and China. Minister of Power and Energy Kumara Jayakody visited Trincomalee oil tanks and made a promise that the agreement Gota’s government reached with India to develop the oil tanks would commence.

Trincomalee oil tank development project was initiated during Gotabaya’s government. The relevant cabinet paper was submitted and the agreement was signed by then-energy minister Udaya Gamanpila. However, the proposal to lease oil tanks to India was initiated by Ranil in 2017. With the leasing of Hambanthota Harbour in 2017 to China Ranil’s government to keep India on good terms agreed to lease oil tanks to India. Ranil could not initiate this. However, when Gota became the President, Udayagammanpila the oil minister, agreed to continue this agreement with India from where Ranil stopped.

The irony of this is that in 2017, when Ranil agreed to lease oil tanks to India, Udayggammanpila made a big cry, claiming oil tanks were being sold to India. Mahinda Rajapakse and Podujana Peramuna, being in the opposition, made the same noise and said once they assumed power, the national assets would be reclaimed. But when Gota became president, Udayagammanpila, who previously dashed his foot down and opposed the oil tank deal, signed it.

Gota indeed had to go home due to the shortage of oil and gas. But Gota’s breaking of the promises he made to the people before the 2019 presidential election after becoming president was also a reason for the hatred against Gota. One of them is the leasing of oil tanks. Those who voted for the SLPP are called the anti-Sri Lankan ‘Baiyaas’. It is easy to wear to ‘Baiyaa’. But when the ‘Baiyaas’ realize that they have been dressed to ‘Baiyaas’, the consequences are serious. That is what happened to Gota. This is also a good lesson for the NPP that came from the vote of ‘Bayiyaas’.

Joseph Fernando